EPRA October Fuel Review: KSh28.49 Kerosene Hike Deepens Cost-of-Living Pressure

The October 2026 fuel price review has raised petrol, diesel and kerosene costs, with higher import expenses and distribution charges putting households, motorists and commercial transport operators under renewed financial pressure.

Kenyan motorists and businesses are confronting another increase in fuel expenditure following the latest determination by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), which raised the maximum retail prices of Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene for the period running from October 15 to November 14, 2026.

The revised prices reflect rising petroleum import costs linked to instability in the Middle East, highlighting Kenya’s exposure to international energy market disruptions. The adjustment is particularly significant for households and businesses that depend on petroleum products for transport, cooking, manufacturing and distribution.

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According to the regulator’s October 2026 maximum retail price announcement, Nairobi’s maximum pump prices increased to KSh226.96 per litre for Super Petrol, KSh227.76 for Diesel and KSh219.87 for Kerosene.

Petrol rose by KSh12.93 per litre, while diesel increased by KSh9.90. Kerosene recorded the largest increase, climbing by KSh28.49 per litre compared with the preceding pricing period.

The adjustment took effect at midnight on October 15 and remains applicable through November 14, unless superseded by a subsequent regulatory determination.

The increase is not limited to Nairobi. Motorists in Mombasa, Kisumu and Nakuru are also paying higher maximum prices, although the final amounts vary by location because of differences in transportation and distribution costs.

The latest review therefore raises questions about the composition of pump prices, the contribution of statutory taxes and levies, and the extent to which commercial freight operators may pass higher fuel expenses on to consumers.

New Fuel Prices Across Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu and Nakuru

EPRA’s regulated maximum retail prices differ across towns, reflecting the costs associated with moving petroleum products from import facilities to inland markets.

Mombasa, which hosts Kenya’s principal petroleum import facilities, generally records lower pump prices than many inland destinations. Nairobi, Kisumu and Nakuru face additional distribution costs associated with transporting fuel through the domestic supply network.

The regulator’s official pump-price schedule lists the following maximum prices for the October 15–November 14 period.

In Nairobi, Super Petrol costs up to KSh226.96 per litre, diesel KSh227.76 and kerosene KSh219.87. Mombasa records KSh223.81 for petrol, KSh224.71 for diesel and KSh216.71 for kerosene.

In Kisumu, the maximum prices stand at KSh226.51 for petrol, KSh227.71 for diesel and KSh219.83 for kerosene. Nakuru’s rates are KSh225.73, KSh226.93 and KSh219.06, respectively.

These are maximum permitted retail prices, not a requirement that every station charge precisely the same amount below the ceiling. Consumers should check the applicable EPRA schedule for their location and fuel product.

The geographical differences are important for commercial operators. Companies transporting goods between Mombasa and inland destinations must account for fuel costs along their distribution routes, while businesses operating within counties face the prices applicable to their local markets.

Middle East Conflict Raises Landed Import Costs

International petroleum prices remain a major influence on Kenya’s domestic fuel market because the country relies on imported refined petroleum products.

In its October 15 coverage, Reuters reported that Kenya raised fuel prices as Middle East conflict increased import costs. The disruption has affected international petroleum markets and supply chains, placing upward pressure on the cost of bringing fuel into Kenya.

Landed import costs include more than the headline international price of crude oil. The price of refined petroleum products, shipping expenses, insurance, handling and other costs associated with delivery can influence the final amount paid by importers.

The precise contribution of each factor depends on the relevant import data and the applicable pricing methodology.

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This distinction matters because changes in crude oil prices do not always translate directly or immediately into equivalent changes at Kenyan petrol stations. The price of refined products and the costs associated with their delivery also influence the calculation.

The October adjustment illustrates how an international supply shock can affect domestic consumers even within a regulated pricing system.

How Taxes and Statutory Levies Shape Pump Prices

The final retail price of petroleum products incorporates several components, including the landed cost of fuel, transportation and distribution expenses, applicable taxes and levies, and permitted commercial margins.

Among the key statutory charges are Value Added Tax (VAT), excise duty and the Road Maintenance Levy. Other applicable petroleum-related charges may also form part of the pricing calculation.

VAT is governed by the applicable tax legislation, while excise duty and petroleum levies operate under their respective statutory frameworks. The Road Maintenance Levy supports funding for road maintenance.

The National Treasury’s role in fiscal policy and the administration of applicable tax measures can also influence the final pump price. Changes in tax rates or levy arrangements may affect what consumers pay, even where other costs remain unchanged.

However, the effect of each component must be assessed using the actual rates and figures in the relevant pricing determination. It would be misleading to attribute a specific portion of the October increase to VAT, excise duty or the Road Maintenance Levy without verifying the detailed calculations.

The broader legal framework includes the Energy Act, 2019, which governs significant aspects of Kenya’s energy sector, and the Petroleum Act, 2019. EPRA’s monthly price determinations specifically cite Section 101(y) of the Petroleum Act, 2019, as the basis for the maximum retail pricing exercise.

Readers can consult the Petroleum Act, 2019 and EPRA’s published regulatory materials to understand the legal framework governing petroleum prices and sector oversight.

October Fuel Prices and Net Changes Per Litre

The table below compares maximum pump prices in four major urban centres and calculates the increase against the preceding September 15–October 14 pricing period.

Source: EPRA’s October 15–November 14, 2026, and September 15–October 14, 2026, maximum retail price schedules. Adjustments are calculated by subtracting the previous period’s maximum price from the current maximum price. Individual tax and levy contributions are not separately quantified in this table.

The figures demonstrate that the increase varies by fuel type and location. Kerosene recorded the largest absolute adjustment across the four cities, while petrol and diesel increases were comparatively smaller.

The difference between the coastal and inland prices also highlights the importance of distribution costs in the domestic petroleum supply chain. Nevertheless, the city-level price difference should not be treated as a direct measurement of freight expenses alone, since the regulated price incorporates several components.

Freight Costs Put Commercial Margins Under Pressure

Higher diesel prices are particularly important for Kenya’s freight and logistics industry, where fuel represents a major operating expense.

Transport companies moving agricultural produce, construction materials, manufactured goods and consumer products rely heavily on diesel-powered vehicles. An increase in the price per litre can raise the cost of operating trucks, buses and delivery fleets.

Businesses may respond by reviewing delivery schedules, improving vehicle utilisation, consolidating loads or renegotiating transport contracts. Others may absorb some of the increase initially, particularly where customer contracts prevent immediate adjustments.

Sustained increases can, however, place pressure on commercial margins and encourage operators to revise delivery charges.

The effects may eventually extend to consumers through the prices of food, household supplies and other goods transported over long distances. The extent of any pass-through will depend on competition, contractual arrangements, fuel consumption and the ability of businesses to absorb additional expenses.

A higher regulated pump price does not automatically mean that fuel retailers earn a higher profit per litre. Retail margins are only one part of the pricing structure, and their contribution must be distinguished from taxes, import expenses and distribution charges.

Why the Kerosene Increase Matters to Households

Kerosene’s KSh28.49 increase per litre in Nairobi is particularly significant because it is used by some households for cooking and lighting, as well as by small businesses.

The higher price can place additional pressure on consumers who have limited flexibility to switch to other energy sources. Households already managing food, rent, transport and utility expenses may find it harder to absorb another increase.

The effects will vary according to household income, consumption patterns and access to alternative fuels. For businesses, the consequences will depend on the extent to which kerosene contributes to their operating costs.

The increase therefore has implications beyond motorists and the transport industry. It raises wider questions about household energy affordability and the ability of vulnerable consumers to manage fluctuations in petroleum prices.

What to Watch in the Next EPRA Review

The October pricing cycle remains in force through November 14, 2026. The next determination will help establish whether international import costs have continued to rise or begun to ease.

International petroleum prices, shipping conditions, applicable tax measures and domestic distribution costs will remain important factors to watch.

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For motorists, checking EPRA’s official price announcements can help with budgeting and identifying the maximum permitted price in their town. Businesses that depend on fuel should also monitor the next determination and consider how changes could affect transport budgets and commercial contracts.

The October review demonstrates the limits of domestic price regulation in shielding consumers from external supply shocks. Although EPRA’s formula establishes maximum retail prices, the cost of importing and distributing petroleum remains exposed to international market conditions.

For Kenya’s households and businesses, the immediate challenge is managing higher fuel expenditure. For policymakers and regulators, the continuing task is to maintain transparent pricing, reliable supply and clear statutory treatment of taxes and levies while limiting the broader economic impact of energy-market volatility.