KNBS Inflation Review September 2026: Consumer Price Index Rises To 6.8%, Transport Costs Drop, Core Pressure Builds
KNBS Director General Macdonald Obudho during a past event. PHOTO/@KNBStats/X
A fresh rise in consumer prices has pushed Kenya’s annual inflation rate to 6.8 per cent in September 2026, highlighting renewed pressure on household budgets despite easing costs in selected transport and utility categories.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that annual inflation increased from 6.6 per cent in August, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 155.85 to 156.47 during the month. The 0.4 per cent monthly increase means the overall cost of the basket of goods and services tracked by KNBS continued to climb. (People Daily)
The September reading puts the KNBS inflation rate September 2026 firmly above the previous month, with food remaining the largest contributor to the annual increase. Food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded annual inflation of 9.5 per cent and contributed 2.8 percentage points to the overall 6.8 per cent rate. (People Daily)
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The latest numbers also reveal a more complicated inflation picture. Some costs eased during the month, including electricity and country bus and matatu fares, while prices of several basic foods increased. At the same time, core inflation rose from 3.4 per cent to 4.0 per cent, suggesting that price pressure is becoming broader than the most volatile food and energy categories.
Food Remains the Biggest Driver of September Inflation
The strongest pressure came from the food and non-alcoholic beverages division, where prices increased 0.9 per cent between August and September and were 9.5 per cent higher than a year earlier.
Milk products featured prominently among the items recording increases. The average price of a 500ml packet of UHT milk rose by 8 per cent to KSh61.64, while fresh packeted milk increased by 6 per cent to KSh61.23. A litre of fresh unpacketed milk rose by 5.8 per cent to KSh77.54. (People Daily)
Other commonly purchased food products also became more expensive. The price of a 2kg packet of white wheat flour rose by 4.5 per cent, while Irish potatoes increased by 3.3 per cent. Oranges rose by 2 per cent, while cabbage increased by 6.2 per cent. Beans, sukuma wiki, beef with bones and cooking oil also recorded increases during the month. (Kenyans)
The movement illustrates the importance of food within the Kenya Consumer Price Index 6.8 percent reading. A rise in food prices can affect households more immediately than changes in less frequently purchased goods because food occupies a significant share of everyday expenditure.
Not every food item moved upwards. Tomatoes fell by 4.1 per cent, while sifted maize flour declined by 0.6 per cent and sugar by 0.4 per cent. The mixed movement shows that the headline food inflation rate reflects changes across a wide basket rather than a uniform increase in every commodity. (Kenyans)
The September figures therefore present households with a mixed picture: some staple prices eased, but several frequently consumed products became more expensive.
Expenditure Weight Explains the 6.8 Per Cent Headline Figure
Inflation is not simply calculated by adding the percentage changes of individual commodities. KNBS uses a weighted Consumer Price Index designed to represent household consumption patterns.
The significance of expenditure weights became clear in the August report, which showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels together account for more than 57 per cent of the total weight across the 13 major expenditure divisions. (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)
September’s figures continue to demonstrate the importance of these divisions.
| Metric Category | September 2026 Statistic | Effect on Headline Inflation |
|---|---|---|
| Overall inflation | 6.8% | Annual increase in consumer prices |
| Food & non-alcoholic beverages | 9.5% | Largest contributor |
| Food contribution | 2.8 percentage points | Biggest single contribution |
| Core inflation | 4.0% | Shows broader underlying pressure |
| Non-core inflation | 14.0% | Remains considerably higher |
| CPI monthly movement | 0.4% | Overall price increase from August |
| Country bus/matatu fares | -1.0% | Partly offset price pressures |
| 50 kWh electricity | -2.4% | Household utility relief |
| 200 kWh electricity | -2.2% | Utility cost relief |
| Petrol | KSh214.95/litre | Remained a significant cost component |
The table illustrates an important feature of the September release: inflation can rise even when several prominent consumer costs decline.
That happens because the CPI combines numerous expenditure categories and assigns each a weight based on household consumption patterns.
Food alone contributed 2.8 percentage points to the 6.8 per cent annual inflation rate. Housing contributed 0.5 percentage points, while furnishings, restaurants and accommodation each contributed 0.3 percentage points. Clothing, health, education and personal care each contributed 0.2 percentage points. (People Daily)
The result is a broad inflation picture in which food remains dominant but other categories continue adding to the overall increase.
Transport Costs Fall Despite High Annual Inflation
Transport presents one of the more interesting parts of the September data.
Country bus and matatu fares declined by 1 per cent during the month, while city bus and matatu fares fell by 0.3 per cent. The reductions provided some relief to commuters and households that depend on public transport. (Kenyans)
International airfares moved in the opposite direction, rising by 8.1 per cent.
The monthly decline in public transport costs should not, however, be confused with a complete reversal of transport inflation. The transport division remained one of the major sources of annual price pressure, recording annual inflation of about 15.6 per cent in September. (Kenyans)
This distinction between monthly and annual inflation is important.
A product can become cheaper between August and September while still costing considerably more than it did in September 2025. Annual inflation measures the change over a 12-month period, while monthly inflation compares consecutive months.
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The transport figures therefore show some short-term relief without erasing the substantial increase recorded over the past year.
Electricity Tariffs Provide Household Relief
Energy and household utility costs provided another source of relief in September.
Electricity for households consuming 50 kilowatt-hours fell by 2.4 per cent during the month, while the cost for consumers using 200 kilowatt-hours declined by 2.2 per cent. The average price of a 13kg LPG cylinder also fell slightly by 0.2 per cent. (Kenyans)
The movement contrasts with the previous month, when electricity costs had increased marginally. KNBS reported that the 50 kWh electricity bill rose from KSh1,286.84 in July to KSh1,289.47 in August, while the 200 kWh bill increased from KSh5,648.30 to KSh5,658.80. (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)
September consequently brought a reversal in household electricity costs.
Using the figures supplied in the latest KNBS release, the 50 kWh electricity bill fell from about KSh1,289 to KSh1,258. That reduction matters to household budgets, particularly when combined with lower public transport fares.
The relief was not enough to offset the increase in food prices, however. The September CPI demonstrates that reductions in individual utility or transport costs do not necessarily translate into lower overall inflation.
Petrol Remains a Major Cost Pressure
Petrol remained at an average national retail price of KSh214.95 per litre in the September data.
That price is significant because fuel costs affect much more than motorists. Petrol and other energy inputs influence transportation, logistics, agriculture, retail distribution and business operating costs.
The August KNBS report had already recorded petrol at KSh214.95 per litre, unchanged from July, while diesel declined from KSh224.04 to KSh219.04 per litre. (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)
September’s petrol figure therefore shows continued stability at the pump even as other parts of the consumer basket moved sharply.
Fuel stability can help businesses plan transport and distribution costs. It can also limit the speed at which energy costs feed into the prices of goods.
The broader inflation picture remains dependent on the interaction between fuel, food, transport and utility prices rather than on petrol alone.
Core Inflation Rises to 4 Per Cent
One of the most important developments in the September release is the increase in core inflation.
Core inflation rose from 3.4 per cent in August to 4.0 per cent in September, while non-core inflation stood at 14.0 per cent, down from 14.7 per cent. (People Daily)
The distinction matters because core inflation is intended to capture underlying price movements after excluding volatile categories.
KNBS describes core inflation as a measure intended to show underlying inflation by excluding price movements arising from transient or volatile product groups, particularly food and energy. (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)
The rise to 4.0 per cent therefore deserves attention because it indicates that price pressures are not confined entirely to volatile food and energy items.
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The increase does not automatically mean that inflation will continue rising. It does, however, provide another indicator that businesses and policymakers will need to monitor alongside headline inflation.
Non-core inflation remained substantially higher at 14 per cent, demonstrating the continuing influence of volatile items on the overall price environment. The decline from 14.7 per cent suggests some easing in those pressures, even as core inflation moved higher.
What the September Inflation Data Means for Households
The latest figures translate into different experiences depending on household spending patterns.
A family spending heavily on food will feel the 9.5 per cent annual food inflation rate more directly than a household with relatively low food expenditure.
Similarly, commuters using country buses or matatus may benefit from the monthly decline in fares, while households with electricity consumption in the 50 kWh or 200 kWh bands could see some relief from lower utility costs.
Businesses face a similarly mixed environment.
Food retailers, restaurants and manufacturers remain exposed to higher input costs, particularly where milk, flour, vegetables, cooking oil and other commodities form a substantial part of operating expenses.
Transport operators, meanwhile, benefit from lower public transport fares only if the reduction is accompanied by manageable fuel, maintenance and other operating costs.
The latest data therefore points to an uneven inflation environment rather than a uniform increase across the economy.
Inflation Outlook Moves Beyond the Headline Number
The September KNBS inflation rate provides a useful snapshot of household price movements, but the underlying composition of the 6.8 per cent figure is equally important.
Food remains the largest contributor, accounting for 2.8 percentage points. Transport continues to carry substantial annual pressure even after monthly fares declined. Electricity and LPG offered modest relief, while petrol remained at KSh214.95 per litre.
The rise in core inflation from 3.4 per cent to 4.0 per cent adds another layer to the analysis.
Recent KNBS data has already shown how food, transport and housing-related costs can dominate headline inflation. The August report placed annual food inflation at 9.0 per cent, transport at 15.7 per cent and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 3.6 per cent, with those three divisions accounting for more than 57 per cent of the CPI weight. (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)
September’s 6.8 per cent reading consequently needs to be understood as a weighted combination of rising and falling prices.
The immediate question will be whether food-price pressure moderates, whether core inflation continues rising and whether energy and transport costs maintain their recent movements.
For households, the numbers point to continued pressure on essential spending even where selected costs are falling. For businesses, the direction of food, fuel, utilities and transport prices will remain important to pricing and operating decisions.
The next inflation release will therefore provide another test of whether September’s increase represents a temporary movement in selected categories or part of a broader shift in underlying consumer-price pressures.
KNBS Consumer Price Index and Inflation Reports remain the key reference point for tracking the monthly changes, while the September figures provide a more detailed picture of where the latest pressure on Kenyan consumers is coming from.
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This version keeps the focus on the 6.8% headline rate, expenditure weights, core inflation, electricity, transport and petrol, while using the latest September reporting and KNBS data.
