Why milk is becoming scarce in Kenya

Kenya’s dairy sector is facing a supply squeeze after prolonged drought reduced milk production, raising concerns over availability, farmer incomes and the possibility of higher prices for consumers.

Formal milk deliveries to processors fell by 3.7 per cent, dropping from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million litres in July 2026. Preliminary figures indicate that supplies could decline further in August as dry conditions continue to put pressure on pasture and animal feeds.

Principal Secretary for Livestock Development Jonathan Mueke said the government was closely monitoring the situation and working with dairy industry stakeholders to prevent the temporary disruption from developing into a larger crisis.

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Speaking during a media briefing in Nairobi on Thursday, Mueke attributed the decline mainly to inadequate fodder caused by the prolonged lack of rainfall.

“The real issue is fodder pressure due to lack of rain,” Mueke explained.

The dry conditions have affected livestock farmers in different parts of the country, with neighbouring countries also experiencing similar challenges. Reduced pasture has forced farmers to depend more heavily on commercial feeds at a time when production costs are already high.

Drought Puts Pressure on Farmers and Milk Processors

Milk production is closely linked to the availability and quality of animal feed. When cows do not receive sufficient nutrition, milk yields can fall, reducing the volume available to processors.

The decline in deliveries has already resulted in intermittent shortages of some milk brands and pack sizes in retail outlets.

Government officials say the problem is not caused by a lack of demand. Instead, the challenge is the amount of raw milk entering the formal processing system.

Mueke said the government will work with the Association of Kenya Feed Manufacturers (AKEFEMA) and other feed millers to identify areas with surplus feed stocks and facilitate their movement to farmers.

Dairy cooperatives and processors will also play a role in distributing available feed to farmers who are struggling with the dry conditions.

The approach is aimed at addressing the problem at its source. Increasing the amount of feed available to dairy farmers could help improve milk yields and restore supplies to processors.

The intervention comes at a critical time for farmers who are already facing higher costs of maintaining livestock.

Government Approves Duty-Free Yellow Maize Imports

Another measure announced by the government is the approval of 500,000 tonnes of yellow maize for duty-free importation.

The maize will be used as a raw material in animal-feed manufacturing, with the government hoping that increased availability will ease pressure on feed manufacturers and help contain production costs.

Mueke said the necessary gazettement was expected the following week, allowing feed manufacturers to begin importing the maize.

Lower feed costs could provide some relief to farmers who have increasingly turned to commercial feeds because of inadequate pasture.

The move is also intended to prevent feed shortages from worsening the decline in milk production.

A prolonged reduction in feed availability could have consequences beyond the current supply disruption, particularly if farmers are forced to reduce their herds or cut back on feeding because of high costs.

Government officials are therefore seeking to keep farmers producing while waiting for the return of more favourable weather conditions.

KDB to Monitor Milk Movement

The Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) will intensify monitoring of milk production and the movement of raw milk from farms to processors.

The move follows concerns that some farmers are selling their milk to informal buyers because they receive better prices than those offered through some formal channels.

Such diversion reduces the quantity of raw milk available to processors and can make supply shortages more visible in supermarkets and other retail outlets.

Mueke also raised concerns about the management of some dairy cooperatives, particularly the margins retained between the price paid by processors and the amount ultimately received by farmers.

He said some cooperatives were buying milk from farmers for more than Sh60 per litre but retaining significant margins instead of passing adequate returns to producers.

The State Department for Cooperatives and the Commissioner for Cooperatives have been engaged on the issue.

A circular is expected to remind cooperatives to operate within regulations and limit their margins to approximately Sh2 to Sh3 for value addition.

Improving returns to farmers could encourage producers to maintain or increase milk production despite the difficult operating environment.

Government Considers Milk Stabilisation Fund

The government is also considering the creation of a milk stabilisation fund designed to address seasonal fluctuations in production.

Under the proposed system, excess milk produced during periods of high production could be processed into milk powder and stored.

The stored products could then be released when production falls, helping prevent severe shortages and reducing sudden fluctuations in prices.

Mueke said the mechanism would also allow farmers to benefit from periods when production is high.

“When times are good for the farmers, they can take that extra three, four shillings and invest back into genetics and animal feed production,” he noted.

Such a system could provide a longer-term solution to one of the dairy sector’s recurring challenges.

Milk production naturally changes with weather conditions and seasons. A storage mechanism could help processors and farmers manage these cycles rather than allowing periods of surplus to be followed by acute shortages.

Consumers Warned Against Panic Buying

The Kenya Dairy Processors Association has urged consumers to remain calm and avoid panic buying.

KDPA Interim Chairman Kenneth Gitonga, who is also Chief Executive Officer of Meru Central Dairy Cooperative Union, described the current disruption as temporary.

“We have a small challenge, but it’s not as big as it looks. Milk has declined by about three percent, and I want to assure our customers that this is completely temporary,” Gitonga assured.

Processors, he said, were working to ensure available milk reaches consumers while keeping prices stable.

Consumers have also been cautioned against turning to unprocessed milk from informal traders because of food safety concerns.

Gitonga warned that some unscrupulous operators adulterate milk with water and other substances before selling it to unsuspecting consumers.

The dairy regulator has encouraged consumers to buy milk from licensed processors and authorised outlets.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Not Behind Shortage

The government has dismissed speculation that foot-and-mouth disease is responsible for the decline in milk supplies.

Mueke said Kenya currently has no active outbreak capable of explaining the national reduction in production.

The country has digital disease surveillance and vaccination programmes designed to help veterinary authorities identify and contain outbreaks.

“At the moment, we don’t have any foot and mouth outbreaks,” Mueke clarified.

He said isolated cases, when identified, are treated and contained.

The government therefore maintains that drought and inadequate fodder remain the main drivers of the current milk supply decline.

Rains Could Bring Relief

The government is now looking to improved rainfall to help restore pasture and milk production.

Mueke said the Meteorological Department had forecast significant rains within the next three weeks.

He nevertheless warned against relying entirely on weather forecasts, saying authorities would continue monitoring production and supply figures on a daily basis.

Immediate milk imports have also been ruled out.

The government intends to first exhaust measures aimed at strengthening domestic production and supporting farmers.

“If we are able to all be collectively across the entire dairy value chain, from production to the market, support our farmer, we will not need to bring milk from outside,” Mueke emphasised.

A prolonged shortage could, however, force the government to consider an import window for milk powder or other dairy products.

Such a measure would be considered if domestic supplies remain constrained and consumers face significant price increases.

The government believes the interventions already announced should help prevent sharp increases, although normal supply-and-demand pressures could result in some movement within recommended retail price ranges.

Kenya’s dairy sector is therefore entering a critical period. Short-term relief will depend heavily on rainfall, feed availability and efficient movement of milk from farms to processors.

Longer-term stability will require stronger support for farmers, transparent cooperative management and mechanisms capable of storing surplus milk during high-production periods.

The coming weeks will show whether the combination of improved weather, cheaper feed inputs and closer monitoring can restore milk supplies before the temporary shortage develops into a wider challenge for Kenyan consumers and dairy farmers.